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Neely's exposition on the difference between forecasting and trading by itself make his views worth careful study. It is clear that Elliott knew more than he showed us in his writings, because his practical results were just too good. Even if you deny this, it is likely that his work could be refined by later thinkers.
I read his books - most of which were poorly written and organized - and tried to apply the ideas in real time. Here is what Glenn Neely said: "During the first five years of my career, I spent a great deal of time studying concepts presented by W.D. He has made some good contributions in the work of technical analysis. Once you understand this concept, you will know that it is not difficult to make money trading providing you use good money management, proper position sizing, and don't do what Richard Dennis' turtle traders do in taking a swing at a swing breakout trade as a 5th wave is coming to an end, and do so in complete disregard to the position of the market, etc. You make money by trading.As a final note: Glenn Neely has publicly discounted the W. His squaring of the range, of the highs and lows do offer value if you know how to use it. And don't believe Glenn Neely's concept of market environments. Do you know what it is.
Therefore, until someone can come up with a method that does not require the use of a protective stop loss, and only until then we can truly call it a science.Granted, Glenn Neely has made some really good guidelines in the text, particularly with the various mathematical relationships among the various waves, and especially with regards to the impulse waves, plus, there are many other good materials in the text as well, you just have to study it to find out; however, along with the many good guidelines, he has also made some guidelines that are questionable. The science of Neowave is by definition imperfect, because it is based on imperfect observations apply to something that is intrinsically probable, not absolute. Glenn is correct in saying that one can be 100% correct in his forecast yet may ended up losing money on a trade. Personally, I found just the opposite.
But then again, this book is not about trading, it's about Elliott Waves view through the lens of Glenn Neely. Oh, and I almost forgot, the original trader that came up with the positive and negative reversal targets way too complicated things. I personally witnessed only complex corrections took more than 100% of the time limits of the previous swing, and most simply "ABC" corrections end some where between 38.2% to 61.8% of the time limit, and that a correction on a price level can take as much as 78.6% retracement. The fact is, you will rarely see an extended fifth wave longer than 100% of the distance measured from wave 0 to wave 3, let along the 262% 5th wave extension of the 0 - 3 wave pattern, period.
For example, is the swing low at wave 4 is taken out, how is it taken out, does the new wave pattern exhibit impulsive behaviour or corrective behaviour, what is the distance of this new wave, etc, etc. For example, wave 2 in the S&P back in March 2003 retraced exactly 88.6% of wave 1 right to the tick (88.6% is a square root of 78.6 which is a square root of the golden ratio 61.8% which is a square root of 38.2%). This happens over and over again. Trading is very tactical in nature and has to do more with psychological management and money management more so than with predictions. There is something that comes before Elliott Waves, something much simpler. Further along the text, Glenn observed that wave 2 must take at least 100% of the time limit it took on wave 1 or it is not an impulse wave; and on the price dimension, wave 2 must not retraces more than 61.8% of wave 1. As W.D. The 5s and the 3s are the building blocks of all Elliott Wave patterns, including triangles (5 waves pattern), and diagonal triangle, leading diagonal, terminal impulse, etc, or whatever the hell you want to call it, makes no difference.
Forecasting is the job of an analyst or someone who sells newsletters. This way we can come right down to the bare essences (i.e., when applies to Elliott Wave, only view the 5 and the 3 and nothing else). While Glenn Neely's view is very interesting, it is not the truth, it is a second generation derived truth.From a philosophical point of view, it is always best to view the world as pure as possible, and view the world simply and stripping off of all preconceived paradigms. All it is is an alternate price projection of the C wave based on the A wave, and when the target fails, you know it is not an impulse so you bet the other way.So here you go, this review is not a criticism on Glenn Neely's works. I know what it is. One trader took the RSI, did something to it and added the concept of "positive and negative reversals", this original trader also created the "CFG" indicator out of the RSI.
Gann stated before, whenever you have something that is greater than 100%, you have a time scale over balancing or price scale over balancing. Finally, there is only one Spirit in this universe that has perfect observations, the Creator himself.In my view, Prechter's text is still the definitive work on Elliott Waves, but there is also a caveat here as well. enough is enough. The 5s allow for progress while the 3s do not. Then along comes Glenn Neely who take Mr.
Gann method of forecasting. For example, the guideline given for a fifth wave extension is that it must be at least 100% but not more than 262% of the distance of wave 0 - 3. He has converted the unbiased nature of pure Elliott Waves observation to a paradigm view of it through the lens of the Neowave concept. Gann's swing points and call it the MotionLine, etc, etc.
In Prechter's text, Elliott Waves are comprise of motive waves (5s) and corrective waves (3s).This in essence is what Elliott Waves are all about: only the 5s and the 3s. At first, the process appeared promising, interesting and challenging, but ultimately unfruitful. Gann's fixed square forecasting methods (square of 144, 72, etc) not as practical. As a result, this science needs constant update to be effective.By trying to make a science out of Elliott Waves as Glenn Neely tries to do. The 45 degree angle trend line when properly taken from one swing and mirrored to another swing will reveal some very interesting properties about the market if one knows how to use it. Then another trader lifted the same concept and call it "momentum discrepancy reversal points", then another trader lifted it again and attached a different name to it and call it "The Composite Index" and then copy righted it by the Library of Congress, then another trader came long and call it the "Disproportional Displacement DD+ and DD-".
This is all you need to know to make money trading. On the other hand, you really don't need to rely on your forecast to make money trading. This is questionable as in every day practical trading, one will rarely see a fifth wave exceeding 100% of the total distance measured from wave 0 - 3, and from a mathematically perspective, the fifth wave extension can take the form of 61.8% of the total distance measured from wave 0 - 3 (this is especially true if we consider the concept of impulse wave with reference to the NeoWave paradigm where wave 2 retracement can take as little as 38.2% retracement of wave 1). Elliott Waves is a guide and a recording of mass activities in the speculative market place, or any other types of mass activities for that matter where a common leadership does not exist. especially with references to the speculative marketplace where there are no certainties, only probabilities. A termination of an important Elliott Wave will not be confirmed until a careful analysis of post wave pattern behaviours.
From here, we use these simple building blocks to build a view of the world using judgmental approach. This directly contradict Glenn Neely's NeoWave concepts on impulse waves. Elliott Waves can be stripped down to its bare essence: the 5's and the 3's. D. In other words, how can we make a science out of the products of our observation which by its very nature is imperfect in the first place. He is a great person and we can all agree on that.
The interesting thing is Glenn uses a similar approach and call it the "rule of proportion".By the way, in the field of technical analysis, I see this time and again that people steal ideas from others, give it a different name and call it their own. If you stick to these trading rules, you will be a successful trader. End of story.Glenn's Neowave concepts put too much rigidity into the theory; hence this created a need for him to constantly come up with newer patterns such as other non 5's, i.e., his 7 waves diametrical patterns, and neutral triangles etc. Neowave does not allows for imperfect observations, it claims to be a science of it's own. The market is not going to let you know when it will go into a trading range ahead of time, and I don't give a s**t of what your wave count is telling you. On the other hand, I found Mr. By far the most useless and illogical Gann concept is that of "Fan Lines." Moving up at a "45 degree angle" is different (for the same market) depending on the time and price scale employed, even if using the same Daily, Weekly or Monthly bar chart in each instance."Really.
What the F. Everything in this universe is related by some sort of a mathematical grid; and with references to Elliott Waves, each adjacent and alternate waves will have some sort of mathematical relationships to other inner waves or extension waves.
In the end, it is THE JUDGMENTAL approach that survives, because this paradigm allows for variations that are intrinsic to our imperfect observations. There are many others individuals whom also know about this secret.I give Glenn Neely's works 4 stars for best efforts.Finally, there is something both me and Glenn Neely also agrees, that is, when comes to trading the markets, none of these predictive models applies.
Guys, grow up. Of course, this approach is much more difficult than some one spoon fed you with man-made sciences like the Neowave approach.
Gann. This is why Glenn Neely recently subordinates his Neowave theories and come up with yet something totally different: his river trading technology.
It attempts to take some of the judgments out of Elliott Waves by incorporating Glenn Neely's own imperfect observations into the theory. Elliott Waves itself is not a cause; it is only a recording and a guide to explain mass behavior.
Given it's highly technical nature, I'll probably have to devote significant study in memorizing the rules and applying them with some frustration to monowave price movements. But I think the first two reasons mattered more in my comfort in absorbing Mr. Elliott Wave may or may not be a good way to analyze markets, but at least with Glenn Neely's book, you can put it to a rigorous test. But all worthwhile endeavors require dedication.Great book, Glenn. four days. This book is simply exceptional.
Let's be honest, most material available on Elliott Wave on the Internet tends to general and vague to the point of being useless. Neeley's book (though Princeton and Yale grads may need remedial help). It is rare that anybody with Glenn Neely's knowledge would simply hand over the keys to the castle, but that's what he did. No, I didn't read Prechter's book, nor did I score 2220 on the GRE, nor did I need the Rosetta Stone.Granted, I have been studying markets for years, have extreme comfort with highly technical concepts, and did go to Harvard College. What's really great about this book is the fact that it is so detailed, technical, and difficult; precisely the reasons why some gave it one or two stars.
Surely, the concepts and rules in this book will take some time to master and apply proficiently, but I have been able to use some of these ideas to start labeling the 2007 bear market.I got the book this past Wednesday, and I have been able to absorb key concepts in I don't know.
Five stars for you thank you amazon , i have well received my item in the right time and quality.
other than that the book is great. The book was in great shape with slight damage to the book hard cover. It had been hit on the opening edge and has a permanent dent.
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